Explore the baseline mathematical predictions for all 48 qualified countries, direct from our Monte Carlo models.
| Rank | Country | Group | Title Odds | Win Chance | Reach Final | Reach Semis | Reach Quarters | Group Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | H | +475 | 17.4% | 31.3% | 50.0% | 61.5% | 81.8% |
| 2 | France | I | +500 | 16.7% | 25.0% | 43.5% | 57.4% | 69.7% |
| 3 | England | L | +650 | 13.3% | 25.0% | 41.7% | 59.2% | 76.2% |
| 4 | Brazil | C | +800 | 11.1% | 20.0% | 35.7% | 54.5% | 78.7% |
| 5 | Argentina | J | +900 | 10.0% | 19.0% | 34.5% | 52.4% | 77.3% |
| 6 | Portugal | K | +1000 | 9.1% | 16.7% | 33.3% | 50.0% | 69.7% |
| 7 | Germany | E | +1400 | 6.7% | 15.4% | 27.8% | 43.5% | 75.6% |
| 8 | Netherlands | F | +2000 | 4.8% | 10.0% | 18.2% | 35.7% | 53.5% |
| 9 | Norway | I | +3000 | 3.2% | 7.7% | 15.4% | 27.8% | 26.7% |
| 10 | Belgium | G | +3500 | 2.8% | 7.7% | 16.7% | 40.0% | 69.7% |
| 11 | Colombia | K | +4000 | 2.4% | 5.3% | 12.5% | 26.3% | 29.4% |
| 12 | USA | D | +6000 | 1.6% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 26.7% | 44.4% |
| 13 | Morocco | C | +5000 | 2.0% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 22.2% | 19.0% |
| 14 | Japan | F | +6500 | 1.5% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 28.6% |
| 15 | Mexico | A | +8000 | 1.2% | 3.8% | 7.7% | 22.2% | 52.4% |
| 16 | Uruguay | H | +6500 | 1.5% | 4.8% | 13.3% | 25.0% | 21.3% |
| 17 | Switzerland | B | +6500 | 1.5% | 5.3% | 10.5% | 26.7% | 51.2% |
| 18 | Turkey | D | +10000 | 1.0% | 3.8% | 10.0% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| 19 | Ecuador | E | +8000 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 6.7% | 15.4% | 22.2% |
| 20 | Croatia | L | +8000 | 1.2% | 3.4% | 9.1% | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| 21 | Senegal | I | +9000 | 1.1% | 2.4% | 5.3% | 13.3% | 11.8% |
| 22 | Sweden | F | +10000 | 1.0% | 2.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 22.2% |
| 23 | Austria | J | +15000 | 0.7% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 18.2% |
| 24 | Canada | B | +20000 | 0.5% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 18.2% | 34.5% |
| 25 | Paraguay | D | +30000 | 0.3% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 11.1% | 20.0% |
| 26 | Bosnia | B | +50000 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 10.5% | 21.3% |
| 27 | Scotland | C | +20000 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
| 28 | Czech Republic | A | +25000 | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3.8% | 11.8% | 26.3% |
| 29 | Ivory Coast | E | +25000 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 9.1% | 14.3% |
| 30 | Egypt | G | +30000 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| 31 | Algeria | J | +35000 | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.8% | 11.1% | 12.5% |
| 32 | Ghana | L | +30000 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% |
| 33 | South Korea | A | +40000 | 0.2% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 13.3% | 25.0% |
| 34 | Australia | D | +60000 | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 5.9% | 12.5% |
| 35 | Tunisia | F | +70000 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 4.8% | 8.3% |
| 36 | Iran | G | +70000 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| 37 | DR Congo | K | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 8.3% |
| 38 | South Africa | A | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% |
| 39 | Qatar | B | +150000 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% |
| 40 | Saudi Arabia | H | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% |
| 41 | Iraq | I | +150000 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% |
| 42 | Panama | L | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 43 | New Zealand | G | +150000 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% |
| 44 | Cape Verde | H | +100000 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| 45 | Uzbekistan | K | +150000 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 46 | Curacao | E | +250000 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 47 | Jordan | J | +250000 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% |
| 48 | Haiti | C | +250000 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% |